{"id":11,"date":"2026-05-16T15:49:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T13:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/?p=11"},"modified":"2026-05-16T15:54:19","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T13:54:19","slug":"la-grande-transmission-une-methodologie-pour-estimer-les-montants-transferes-a-lhorizon-2050","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/2026\/05\/16\/la-grande-transmission-une-methodologie-pour-estimer-les-montants-transferes-a-lhorizon-2050\/","title":{"rendered":"La Grande Transmission \u2013 Une m\u00e9thodologie pour estimer les montants transf\u00e9r\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019horizon 2050"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>La&nbsp;<strong>dynamique d\u00e9mographique fran\u00e7aise conduira \u00e0 une transmission de patrimoines \u00e0 horizon 2050 dont les montants n\u2019ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9gal\u00e9s<\/strong>. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, appel\u00e9 \u00ab&nbsp;<strong>grande transmission<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00bb, constitue un enjeu pour l\u2019ensemble de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise. Les m\u00e9nages qui h\u00e9riteront sont susceptibles d\u2019effectuer des arbitrages patrimoniaux importants sur les sommes re\u00e7ues. Le&nbsp;<strong>march\u00e9 de l\u2019immobilier r\u00e9sidentiel&nbsp;<\/strong>sera \u00e9galement concern\u00e9&nbsp;: les transmissions de logements devraient accro\u00eetre les mises en vente tandis que les m\u00e9nages qui h\u00e9riteront verront leur apport personnel potentiel augmenter. Cependant, du fait de la concentration du patrimoine des m\u00e9nages fran\u00e7ais, un&nbsp;<strong>accroissement des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s d\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 la propri\u00e9t\u00e9<\/strong>&nbsp;pourrait s\u2019op\u00e9rer. Quant \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9tat, il devrait voir ses recettes augmenter, avec la p<strong>erception des droits de succession<\/strong>&nbsp;et des frais de notaires li\u00e9s \u00e0 la hausse des transactions dans l\u2019ancien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous proposons ici une&nbsp;<strong>projection des flux transmis d\u2019ici \u00e0 2050<\/strong>, suivant une m\u00e9thode qui croise les donn\u00e9es agr\u00e9g\u00e9es de patrimoine des m\u00e9nages avec les projections de population publi\u00e9es par l\u2019Insee. Cela nous permet \u00e9galement d\u2019<strong>\u00e9valuer la sensibilit\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats<\/strong>&nbsp;aux hypoth\u00e8ses faires sur deux param\u00e8tre cl\u00e9s, \u00e0 savoir le taux de revalorisation du patrimoine et le taux de croissance de l\u2019\u00e9pargne des m\u00e9nages. Le montant des recettes li\u00e9es \u00e0 cette \u00ab grande transmission \u00bb pour l\u2019\u00c9tat, \u00e0 syst\u00e8me fiscal inchang\u00e9, est \u00e9galement estim\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"http:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Persp26-058-France-LaGrandeTransmission-20260316.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Contenu embarqu\u00e9 Persp26-058-France-LaGrandeTransmission-20260316.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-a1dcc18f-0882-4d77-810b-a46ec4a32fc6\" href=\"http:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Persp26-058-France-LaGrandeTransmission-20260316.pdf\">Persp26-058-France-LaGrandeTransmission-20260316<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Persp26-058-France-LaGrandeTransmission-20260316.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-a1dcc18f-0882-4d77-810b-a46ec4a32fc6\">T\u00e9l\u00e9charger<\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La&nbsp;dynamique d\u00e9mographique fran\u00e7aise conduira \u00e0 une transmission de patrimoines \u00e0 horizon 2050 dont les montants n\u2019ont jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9gal\u00e9s. Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, appel\u00e9 \u00ab&nbsp;grande transmission&nbsp;\u00bb, constitue un enjeu pour l\u2019ensemble de la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 fran\u00e7aise. Les m\u00e9nages qui h\u00e9riteront sont susceptibles d\u2019effectuer des arbitrages patrimoniaux importants sur les sommes re\u00e7ues. Le&nbsp;march\u00e9 de l\u2019immobilier r\u00e9sidentiel&nbsp;sera \u00e9galement concern\u00e9&nbsp;: les [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11\/revisions\/18"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jubaihaddaden.fr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}